Chest value vs. open value: the math you should do first
Trading a sealed chest and opening a chest are two different trades. Here's how to reason about which choice is better.
Sealed price vs. opened expected value
A sealed chest has one clear price: the community trading value shown on this site. An opened chest has a probability distribution of outcomes, which gives it an expected value that's almost always lower than the sealed trade price. The gap exists because chest drop tables over-represent cheap items — a Secret Chest that trades sealed for a significant value may have a loot table that averages 40–60% of that in opened items.
The default rule: sell sealed
For most players most of the time, the rule is: if you can liquidate the sealed chest at community value, sell it sealed. The sealed price already bakes in the possibility of hitting a rare drop — you're offloading the variance to your trade partner. If you open it yourself, you own that variance. Over hundreds of chests the expected value math catches up, but most players don't run enough chests for the law of large numbers to work in their favor.
When opening makes sense
Two legitimate exceptions: (1) you actually need a specific crafting output from the chest — if you're farming Atomic Cores for Ascension Tier 5 and a chest has them on its loot table, the expected value math doesn't apply because you need the output, not the resale. (2) You believe the sealed trade price is mispriced relative to the true expected value — if community consensus hasn't caught up to a loot table buff, buying sealed and opening can be profitable. This requires knowing the actual drop table, which means monitoring the community Discord for data.
Untradeable chests
Untradeable chests — flagged on the codes page and item pages — must be opened regardless. Rewards from codes like Aura Crates are often untradeable, which is why they don't appear with significant individual value in the trading economy. The sealed/opened question doesn't apply here; just open them immediately on receipt.
Bulk chest trades
Bulk chest trades (stacks of 5 or more) typically attract a 5–10% discount versus equivalent singles. Buyers factor in the inventory management cost and the fact that they're absorbing more variance. If you're selling bulk, bundle with a high-demand item to offset the discount. If you're buying bulk, the discount is genuine value — use it.
